The PC isn’t ready to die, it’s ready for a rebirth
Every other week, there seems to be story about the PC dying. This week, it was because Intel is planning on exiting the motherboard business. The screwy thing is, I think the exact opposite is about to happen. Not only is the desktop not dead, it’s about to go through a resurgence. We’re just waiting for that visionary vendor who realizes that bigger is still better, and this Lemming-like agreement that the desktop is dead is holding people back. Here’s why.
How we got here
We started off with desktop computers. The Apple II, Mac, IBM PCs, and even Commodore and Atari machines were all designed to mostly stay in one place. Our first portables were pretty ugly. My own first portable from Panasonic, called the Sr. Partner, weighed in around 35 pounds, and even had a built-in thermal printer and a plasma screen that displayed, wait for it, an amazing two colors. Both orange. These machines wouldn’t run on batteries, and were basically desktop computers with smaller, more limited screens, and handles for lugging them around.
We then moved to laptops, and even early tablets, but the laptop form factor held. They had batteries, but two hours on battery was often a stretch. Best of that early lot was the IBM Butterfly laptop, which showcased both the promise and the problem. It was wonderfully portable, but slow as snot.
Laptops didn’t become truly viable until the beginning of the last decade, and desktop computers have started to fall off in popularity since then. But laptops were still smaller, slower, and really just portable desktops. Tablets were basically expensive laptops with or without keyboards, and not very popular.
Now jump ahead to the iPad. Suddenly tablets are the thing, and laptops began to emulate them. They’re very light, reasonably fast, but with ever smaller screens and tinier keyboards, which are often touch based. Yes, we’re now far more mobile, but far less productive.
We’re trained to think that this process is evolutionary, that desktops gave way to laptops, which give way to tablets. But that’s like saying four-door sedans gave way to two-door sedans, which gave way to Mazda Miatas. You can’t live off a cell phone or a 7-inch tablet, yet that’s where the market seems to think evolution is taking us. With a large cell phone or small tablet, you don’t need a laptop as much when you are mobile, so if anything, laptops might be more ripe for replacement. The powerful, productive desktop still has a role to play.
We need a new desktop
Back in the 80s, people speculated that personal computers were about to kill the mainframe. Yet here, 30 years later, it is IBM’s most profitable line. But it isn’t the same mainframe we knew back then, the product had to be updated to address today’s needs. If IBM hadn’t done that, it would have died years ago as predicted.
That will be challenge for desktops. Because of the perception that desktops are dead, few manufacturers are making major efforts to update them. Case design stopped advancing about 10 years ago, and while external skins keep changing, the tower and mini-tower, which form the backbone of this segment, have stagnated. These designs are arguably better than all-in-ones because they are more flexible, they can more easily be updated, and they can address more and different sizes of screens more aggressively. With monitors, bigger is always better, unless you have to carry them.
In addition to upgrading the designs, the ecosystem really needs to aggressively create a “better together” solution with tablets. Ideally when you grab your tablet or smartphone and leave your desktop, whatever it was you were working with goes with you until you can once again get back to a bigger machine. Technologies like OnLive desktop, Windows To Go, Skydrive, Office 365 and others will sort of get you there, but they need to be packaged and presented better. Desktops should offer an experience very similar to what you get with books on multiple Kindle readers and apps today; it doesn’t matter which device you grab, not only is your book on it, it’s opened to right where you left off.
Wanted: Desktop visionary
Lenovo is likely one of the companies likely to figure out that desktops are still viable – and give them the reinvention they need. The company’s 27-inch table-top all-in-one was arguably one of the most innovative PCs at CES 2013, and it was a desktop PC (even though it had a short-term battery).
Even Vizio, which seemed to get this “better together” concept early on, isn’t executing it with PCs and tablets. I’m kind of surprised at this, since PC vendors are fighting on foreign terrain with tablets, and this strategy would let them bring the battle back to their own turf. A next-generation desktop PC designed to pair perfectly with tablets and smartphones could shift the advantage back their way… if they would build it.
I think someone will figure this out eventually, much as IBM did with the mainframe, but I also think we’ll be sorry it took them so long. I’m imagining a desktop that’s small, fast, with lots of capacity, a large 4K display, and a high-speed tablet sync connection.
Guest contributor Rob Enderle is the founder and principal analyst for the Enderle Group, and one of the most frequently quoted tech pundits in the world. Opinion pieces denote the opinions of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of Digital Trends.
Showing 48 comments
Until then Macbooks sales will continue to increase.
I'm pretty much the same way. Used to 8 now but pretty much live in the apps, honestly I didn't live in the old start screen much either. It was just something to get through to go to the apps. Even with surface I use a mouse much of the time, better for highlighting even though I've learned to do it on the screen. So agree, at some point you have to get work done. For instance I drafted my latest column on the plane using Surface RT (gotta love the battery life) and did the final edits and submitted from my desktop when I landed. So much easier on a desktop, but can't take the desktop on a plane and I don't have a laptop that'll do 10 hours and weighs under 3 pounds. So I use both.
http://www.examiner.com/article/dell-developing-project-ophelia-a-3-5-x-1-5-computer
Good point and I was at the launch for that in Las Vegas. I think its use case needs to be worked out and it lacks the power I think we need at the desk at least until we can get reliable low latency high bandwidth networking everyplace (it is kind of a chubby client). But something like that could become the module we use in all devices.
The systems should work independently where you could run either or both same time, and either switch screen or run them split screen. But naturally they need a bridge, an easy way to transfer files and data between them. At the very core they should have a device allowing them to share clip board so you could just copy/paste data or files. Shared access to external SD card as well as any connected USB mass storage device.
I have been involved in computing almost as long (25+ years) as Mr. Enderle, and have been enjoying his writings from when they were bound on paper.
While there is a chance that the traditional desktop (CPU, RAM, HDD, VGA) will remain in the short term, it is truly being run over by the 800 lb gorilla (the Internet).
Thus we will only need a screen and input method connected to 'the cloud' and we will be on our way.
Odds are, this will be a smartphone (voice recognition) or tablet (voice/touch). A Chromebook is a stopgap preview of merging yesterday (PC) and cloud connected devices of today.
Add to that the future possibility of large flexible OLED screens, and 'Google Goggles' type of technology, and I find it very hard to tolerate the KVM (Keyboard Video Mouse) interface of today.
Everything will have a IP address (car, refrigerator, HDTV, etc.) and nobody wants a mouse or keyboard on those.
As people get used to using touch and voice, the traditional PC interface will become less tolerable.
Just look at the beginnings in the rejection of Metro in Windows 8.
I am a traditionalist, so I am surprised to be saying these things, but the tipping point was when I'm sitting at home on my PC touch typing away at 40+ WPM, and finding that I'm frustrated because I can input text faster if I just grab my Android phone and voice dictate a Gmail or SMS like I do when I'm outside.
Windows 7 speech is good but not as good as Google on Android. Siri not serious enough.
Netfilx is already eating up the little that we have in the states.
That is why Google Fiber is taking root...
max out any system for what is essentially lunch money. And those Android TV sticks, for less than $100?
They are advancing at a pace to replace (current) desktops in about 18 months. Need more power? Network
a half dozen or so. I certainly agree that PC makers have dropped the ball.
Let's be honest - most of us use our tech for email, writing, calculations, communication and research/entertainment. Outlook, Word, Excel & Powerpoint have grown so large they are unwieldy. I hazard the average user only leverages 20-30% of their functionality. As other smaller and more flexible systems pick away at these mainstays, you will see the flood of users move quickly to tablets.
Entertainment is not focused on one simple system - it is distributed across many simple platforms that are cheap and easy to employ. What these users want and need are simple and trouble-free systems - and PC's have regularly show themselves to have neither of these attributes. In fact, an entire ecosystem has grown, matured and thrived on many PC failings (repair, cleaning, virus, etc).
hah! I posted a similar statement here: http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/why-hybrids-are-the-future-of-computing/ and get into an argument with the writer.
There's no way people are going to buy into two docks (or even a single, ugly wired dock for phone/tablet). It's got to be a wireless, cloud based solution. But I don't know if there's a terrible problem here; Google Drive, MS Skydrive, Dropbox etc. all allow you to easily sync your work accross all three platforms without even thinking about it-regardless of the manufacturer of the individual devices.
The PC will be replaced by a device that has everything the PC has and better. Today this candidate does not exist yet.
I don't think the desktop is dying, but I do think it's changing. My guess is that we will see an even greater chasm between all in one systems and tower systems. I think you will see tower systems only through the DIY crowd, boutiques and the workstation markets; the rest will be all in one systems that are just power enough for most home and work users.
I do think gaming is still dying on the PC. There are very few games out there that force people to plop $2K+ down on a system powerful enough to play them.
A lot of the problems brought up are because a lot of people don't utilize remote tech at all... my wearable + PC is more functional than just about everything out there, and improving daily~
The Steam box does look awesome. The problem with PC gaming is that the user install base is so small compared to consoles. There is little motivation for a developer to make games for the PC.
The only exception I can think of would be MMO's which are flourishing on the PC.
A slow death right?
What we see is more like a market adjustment, since theres more viable options of hardware to fulfill consumer demands. Of course the market share of PC will switch to other devices, but to say no one will want to use PC`s anymore is just insane.
What do you think is the cause for growing interest in home DIY systems?
Well, how about something like a Raspberry Pi keyboard for your Big Screen TV? I'm not talking about a Logitech box or Google TV, I'm talking about a real Linux computer with decent memory and desktop style apps ... and yes, it can surf and do stuff like the Google or Logitech boxes.
On top of that, it would be portable because the wireless keyboard could contain all of the system beneath it's keys.
But there are many other directions a re-envisioned desktop market segment could take on both the high and low end.
As someone who's used a wearable for 4+ years, a lot of challenges presented have already been conquered, and there's a ton of untapped potential, and the public eye is slowly turning on it with projects like the Pebble, google's Glass, and the like... I have a much more powerful system that's integrated into my home automation and my implants, and while I don't expect those to take off per se, it's amazing how much difference there is between my daily gear and normal "consumer" gear...
But you can not do "All" of that with a wireless keyboard with just an App. I was speaking of running programs like photoshop/GIMP, office suites, web design, video editing, graphic design ...
All of that requires an substantial Operating system and a combination of; a respectable flash drive, DRAM and a wireless video conduit to the HD TV (4k HD even better).
But we do have all of that technology right now so the question is one of market potential (TAM).
But it would no longer be a "PC"; instead it would be a "Portable Work Station". Nor would it be a "Desktop" as it would probably be wall mounted ... but that's all semantics.
For a full PC rebirth I'd love to see the invention of fully modular laptops where manufactures are creating standardized main boards and parts you could mod your laptop to your hearts desire without need of soldering.
Today basically only the harddrive/SSD is modular. What if new tech would allow you to change graphics card just as easily. Or the cooling system. Granted, a modular laptop like that would most likely be a bit bulkier in beginning, but as tech get smaller this should become possible without resulting in heavy bricks.